The Uncertainty Principle in Software Engineering
Submitted to ICSE'97, 19th International Conference on Software Engineering
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Hadar Ziv
Debra J. Richardson
Department of Information and Computer Science
University of California, Irvine Irvine, California 92697-3425
fziv; djrg@ics.uci.edu
August 23, 1996
Abstract
This paper makes two contributions to software engineering research. First,
we observe that un-certainty permeates software development but is rarely
captured explicitly in software models. We remedy this situation by presenting
the Uncertainty Principle in Software Engineering (UPSE), which states
that uncertainty is inherent and inevitable in software development processes
and products. We substantiate UPSE by providing examples of uncertainty
in select software engineering domains. We present three common sources
of uncertainty in software development, namely human participation, concurrency,
and problem-domain uncertainties. We explore in detail un-certainty in
software testing, including test planning, test enactment, error tracing,
and quality estimation. Second, we present a technique for modeling uncertainty,
called Bayesian belief net-works, and justify its applicability to software
systems. We apply the Bayesian approach to a simple network of software
artifacts based on an elevator control system. We discuss results, implications
and potential benefits of the Bayesian approach. The elevator system therefore
serves as an example of applying UPSE to a particular software development
situation. Finally we discuss additional aspects of modeling and managing
uncertainty in software engineering in general.