-
Moore's and Metcalf's laws are
multiplicative
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Generates the phenomena called
"Internet years"
References
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Bellcore. NetSizer.
Java applet with real-time statistical sampling of Internet hosts coming
online.
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Rutkowski, Tony. Internet
Trends. General Magic, 1997.
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Where did the Internet year
come from and why is it equal to a dog year? (Or why do Internet programmers
live like dogs?)
Answer: Moore's and Metcalf's Laws
-
Moore's law says chip density
doubles every 18 months. Current hardware evolution is doubling the horsepower
on your laptop each year. Over n years, the computing power on your desktop
increases by 2 to the n power.
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Metcalf's law says that computer
power increases by the square of the number of nodes on the network. Nodes
on the Internet have doubled in 1995, 1996, and 1997, so the Internet compounds
Moore's law for a net compute power increase of 2 to the 3n power.
-
In one year Moore's law doubles
your compute power but with Metcalf's law increment, you get 8 times the
compute power each year. One human year is about equal to 8 dog years,
if dogs lived as long as humans. This is why developers working in Internet
companies live like dogs.
© Jeff Sutherland 1995-98